Bitcoin Bull and Bear Markets

With Bitcoin hovering just several percent above the low set in June 2022, let’s have a look at the bull and bear markets that it underwent since 2010. There were 4 bull markets and 4 bear markets, as presented in the chart below. Cycle 1 lasted between 2010 and 2012, cycle 2 between 2012 and …

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The Moneyness of Fiat, Gold, and Crypto

I’m aware that I’m using the term “moneyness” outside the typical meaning of the word. It usually describes the likelihood that a financial option can be exercised and earn money, rather than expire worthless. The measure can vary between 0% and 100%. I like the word “moneyness”, so I decided to repurpose it for a …

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Bridgewater & bitcoin

This note is written as a discussion/response to the recent bitcoin research piece by Bridgewater. I have read the article by Ray Dalio and the Bridgewater team with great interest. It is an important voice about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies from one of the world’s premier asset managers and it is likely that it will help …

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